Shared by:DJPB

The Art and Science of Prediction

Written by ,
Read by
Format: M4A
Bitrate: 64 Kbps
Unabridged

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are “superforecasters.”

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Announce URL:
Creation Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2021 18:35:56 +0200
This is a Multifile Torrent
Superforecasting_ The Art and Science of Prediction.m4b 268.96 MBs
File Size: 268.96 MBs
Piece Size: 256 KBs
Comment: Updated by AudioBook Bay
Encoding: UTF-8
Info Hash: 651d3caf5a6bdbfcefd3358c739574cfe63a1349
Torrent Download Torrent Free Downloads
Tips Sometimes the torrent health info isn’t accurate, so you can download the file and check it out or try the following downloads.
Direct Download Start Direct Download
Tips You could try out alternative bittorrent clients.
Secured Download Download Files Now
Ad